Winnipeg to Phoenix and back again?

James Balsillie never had it this close.

On May 11, news leaked out that the NHL’s schedule-makers had drafted a proposed schedule that included a team based out of Winnipeg – could it be a sign that the NHL may be prepared for some movement?

A recent vote by the Glendale city council means that the city will guarantee up to $25 million to the NHL and likely ensures that the Coyotes will stay in Arizona for at least another season.

It’s the latest twist in a bizarre past few months for the team formerly known as the Jets. The Coyotes went bankrupt in May of 2009 and were bought by the NHL last November. In the year since, the league has sued former Coyotes owner Jerry Moyes for mismanaging the franchise’s obligations and engaging in sales talks with Balsillie. Last fall, coach and part-owner Wayne Gretzky walked away from the team right before the season’s start.

And yet, for the first time since 2002, the Coyotes made the playoffs; their 107 points and 50 wins are franchise-bests. This is a team that finally seems to have a future, at least on the ice.

Could the team move? Some are convinced that a move is all but sure. Yahoo!’s Dan Wetzel wrote a column on how the city of Winnipeg “might steal its team back.”

But one notable Winnipeg fan – Jets historian Curtis Walker – isn’t buying into the hype. He doesn’t believe the Coyotes will land in Winnipeg, but if they did, they could last.

On his website, CurtisWalker.com, Walker wrote that if the team were ever to return to Winnipeg, certain things would have to be addressed. In the years since the team moved, he doesn’t feel enough has changed.

“It was quite widely accepted in 1995 that the money wasn’t in Winnipeg to support an NHL team,” said Walker. “The largest employers are all public sector and the badly-needed corporate support would be just as much of a problem today as it was then () The fans themselves can’t make up the difference.”

However, he thinks the NHL has changed its tune on relocation in a way Jets fans would find bittersweet at best.

“When we were fighting to keep the Jets in 1995, Gary Bettman was greasing the skids for the Jets’ exit,” said Walker. “Before and since, to his credit, he has gone well beyond the call of duty to keep franchises in markets that the NHL wants to be in.”

In an interview on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, Bettman all but echoed Walker’s statement when he said, “We try not to move franchises if we can avoid it.”

And he has. Since the Jets moved in 1996, only one team – the Hartford Whalers – has relocated. If the Coyotes moved, it would be a massive change from the NHL’s recent behaviour that kept teams in Ottawa, Pittsburgh and Nashville.

But even if the Coyotes do move to Winnipeg, there’s no guarantee they could compete with teams that have a bigger financial base to draw from or are more desirable for a free agent.

“Though Winnipeg will stand behind a loser better than most cities, support will slip as hope for a winner and the initial novelty fades away,” said Walker. “Players will go where the money is and with increased free agency in the NHL, they won’t be bound to their original club for life.”

Walker instead suggested that all the talk of relocation could be a way for the NHL to advance a deal more quickly to keep the Coyotes in Glendale.

As pessimistic as it may sound, Walker has mixed feelings about the Jets’ possible return.

“I guess it’s a case of taking the good with the bad, but I don’t welcome all this hoopla,” he said. “It’s an emotional rollercoaster I’ve been on before and don’t care to go on again.”

But could it happen?

“I won’t believe that the NHL will seriously put a team in Winnipeg until the puck drops at center ice.”