Prospects and Promise: What to make of the 2011-12 Oilers

Despite hope in Edmonton last September, stemming mainly from the arrival of three dynamo prospects, the Oilers once again found themselves holding the first overall pick by season’s end. That made it two last-place finishes in a row for the “City of Champions.”

It’s not surprising the Oilers placed as low as they did: they finished in the bottom five in goals for, goals against, power-play proficiency and penalty-kill efficiency. Amazingly, their leading scorer, Jordan Eberle, had only 43 points.

It was a long season to say the least.

If the Oilers are going to improve at all moving forward, they will need a big lift from their goaltenders. Nikolai Khabibulin played in 47 games for the Oilers last season and had a .890 save percentage, the lowest in the entire league among netminders who played 30 games or more.

Luckily, the Oilers won’t necessarily have to rely on the veteran because former first-round pick Devan Dubnyk made major strides in 2010-11, improving his save percentage from a horrendous .889 to a respectable .916 in his second season in the league.

Avoiding the injured reserve will also go a long way in helping the Oilers improve. Just last year, Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle all played under 70 games; Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky played less than 50 games; and Ryan Whitney played less than 40 games. Missing that many games from key players will derail the best of teams and, for a young squad, it’s devastating.

But, the real source of hope in Edmonton lies in the Oilers young, dynamic forward group. Jordan Eberle showed flashes of brilliance and led the team in scoring; Taylor Hall slowly emerged as a deadly scoring threat before suffering a season-ending injury in Match; and players like Sam Gagner looked like they were finally starting to put it all together.

The addition of Ryan Smyth during the off-season will help aid the development of these players, giving them a respected veteran leader to lean on for advice. On the flip side, long-time Oilers Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky must find a way to stay in the line-up on a regular basis in order to help Edmonton’s increasingly young roster. If they can’t, having the entire scoring load rest on rookies and sophomores is a recipe for disaster.

There is also the possibility that the Edmonton forwards will be bolstered by last year’s first-overall pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. However, unlike most first-overall picks, it is unknown whether Nugent-Hopkins will make the team out of training camp.

While there are no questions about his talent, there are major concerns that, physically, he will be unable to withstand the rigors of a full NHL season. As the Oilers aren’t expected to make the playoffs in 2011-12, it might be a better long-term move to send Nugent-Hopkins back for another season in the WHL.

Even without “Nuge,” the Oilers are flushed with a skilled young roster. That means it would be hard for them not to improve on last season’s dead-last finish. If somehow they don’t, it will be the first time a team finished dead last in three straight seasons since the Nordiques from 1989-1991.

That wouldn’t be the worst thing, as the Nordiques used those picks to select Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan and Eric Lindros (who was subsequently traded for Peter Forsberg and, essentially, the 1996 Stanley Cup). Adding another first-overall pick to Hall and Nugent-Hopkins would put the Oilers in an enviable position.

Yes, the Oilers have an impressive group of young players, but it will take time for them to become anything more than just promising. Even if everything were to break right, it would be tough to sneak into the playoffs in the competitive Western Conference.

But, at the very least, Ryan Smyth is back where he belongs and that’s something to warm the hearts of Oilers supporters during the long, cold northern Alberta winter.

At least until fans start looking for that enviable young core to translate into wins.